Youzhny, Nadal reach U.S. Open semis

Tennis Betting Lines

09/09/2010 - Flushing Meadows, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Mikhail Youzhny and eight-time major titlist Rafael Nadal won their quarterfinal matches on Thursday at the 2010 U.S. Open.

Nadal, the world No. 1, handled eighth-seeded Fernando Verdasco 7-5, 6-3, 6-4 in the night match at the USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center.

The reigning Wimbledon and French Open champion, Nadal needs a U.S. Open title to complete the career Golden Slam, which is all four majors and an Olympic gold medal.

If Nadal can capture the title here, he would become just the seventh man in history to complete the career Grand Slam.

Nadal, who has yet to drop a set at this year's event, was actually trailing 4-2 in the first set. However, Nadal won the next three games to turn the tables against his fellow Spaniard. After each player held serve, Nadal broke Verdasco's serve to take the first set.

With the score tied at 2-2 in the second stanza, Nadal won three consecutive games to take control. He cruised to victory from there to set up a meeting with Youzhny in Saturday's semifinals.

Verdasco lost to Novak Djokovic in the quarters here last year.

The 12th-seeded Youzhny earned a 3-6, 7-6 (9-7), 3-6, 6-3, 6-3 victory over the 25th-seeded Stanislas Wawrinka in four hours at Arthur Ashe Stadium.

The Russian advanced to a Grand Slam semifinal for the second time in his career. Youzhny, who reached the semis here back in 2006, is the first Russian into the semifinals of a Grand Slam since Marat Safin at Wimbledon in 2008.

Wawrinka, playing in his first Grand Slam quarterfinal, cruised past Youzhny in the first set before things heated up in the second.

The tight second stanza ultimately went to a tiebreak, which saw the Swiss stave off three set points before the Russian finally captured it with a smash forehand winner.

Wawrinka then eased his way past Youzhny in the third, serving the set out with some big blasts.

Youzhny had no trouble taking the fourth set after racing out to a 3-0 lead. The Russian kept the momentum going in the final frame by breaking Wawrinka's serve. Youzhny then held serve and seemed to be in control.

The Swiss, though, fought right back with a hold and break of his own to even things at 2-2. The Russian followed with a break and hold to take a 4-2 edge. After each player held serve, Youzhny broke Wawrinka's serve to take the match.

Nadal owns a 7-4 advantage in the all-time series with Youzhny.

Saturday's other semi will pit second-seeded Swiss icon Roger Federer against third-seeded Serbian star Djokovic. Federer is 10-5 lifetime against Djokovic, including wins here in New York in each of the previous three years. The Swiss topped the Serb in the 2007 U.S. Open final and the 2008 and 2009 semifinals.

The 16-time major titlist Federer is 4-1 versus the former Aussie Open champion Djokovic in Grand Slam competition.

Federer has played in the last six U.S. Open finals, including a loss against Juan Martin del Potro here a year ago. The reigning Aussie Open champion Federer captured five straight U.S. Open championships from 2004-08.

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Sportsbook Betting Lines

Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?

Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.

“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.

“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “

What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?

There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).

Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).

How the Opening Line Is Made

The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.

Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.

Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.

Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.

The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.

A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.

Why Sports Betting Lines Change

Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:

Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game

Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)

The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.

Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.

For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.

Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."

“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”

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